Nelson Mandela University’s Dr Dave Balfour, a research associate in the Centre for African Conservation Ecology, is one of the co-authors on this research published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, one of the world’s leading journals.
African elephants, the largest land animals on Earth, are known for their intelligence, strong social bonds and roles in shaping ecosystems. However, these majestic creatures are facing a dire future, as their populations have dramatically declined across the continent over the past five decades.
This week, researchers released what they described as the most thorough assessment to date of the two African elephant species: the savanna elephant and the forest elephant.
The study, which analysed data from 475 population surveys conducted at sites in 37 countries between 1964 and 2016, revealed declining trends.
At the surveyed locations, savanna elephant populations have decreased by an average of 70%, while forest elephants have seen a staggering 90% decline.
The primary drivers behind these declines are poaching for ivory, habitat loss due to agricultural expansion and fragmentation. Overall, across all sites, elephant populations dropped by 77% on average.
“The loss of large mammals is a significant ecological issue for Africa and the planet," Dr Balfour said.
Although elephants vanished at some sites, their populations increased in other places thanks to conservation efforts, said George Wittemyer, a wildlife conservation professor at Colorado State University and chair of the scientific board at Save the Elephants, who helped lead the study.
He warned, “A lot of the lost populations won’t return, and many low-density populations are under constant pressure. It’s likely we will continue to lose populations in the future.”
Poaching, driven by the illegal ivory trade - primarily in China and other parts of Asia - remains a significant threat, while the expansion of agriculture continues to destroy vital elephant habitats.
Forest elephants, which make up only about a third of the savanna elephant population numbers, have been disproportionately affected by poaching across most of their range in Africa.
Wittemyer highlighted the severe impact in regions, such as the northern Sahel - comprising parts of Mali, Chad, and Nigeria - where high poaching pressure and weak protection have led to the complete loss of elephant populations.
In contrast, southern Africa has seen more positive outcomes. In countries like Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Namibia, elephant populations have increased at 42% of the surveyed sites. These successes are largely attributed to strong conservation efforts, including active management by governments and conservation groups.
“In places where populations are increasing, there has been proactive stewardship, showing that conservation efforts can work,” said Wittemyer.
The study did not attempt to provide a single continent-wide population estimate due to the varying methods used across the surveys. However, separate conservation estimates place the total number of African elephants at around 415,000 as of 2016.
A forthcoming report from the IUCN African Elephant Specialist Group is expected to update these numbers, estimating around 130,000 forest elephants and 400,000 savanna elephants remaining.
The world's third extant elephant species, the slightly smaller Asian elephant, faces its own population crisis, with similar factors at play as in Africa.
“Elephants are not just among the most intelligent and responsive species we share the planet with; they are also a cornerstone species essential to the health of Africa's ecosystems,” he explained. Elephants influence the structure of savannas and forests, disperse seeds, and modify the habitats of countless other species that depend on them.
While the population trends for African elephants remain troubling, Dr Balfour stressed the importance of recognising both the challenges and the successes in conservation efforts. “We need to learn from where we've had successes and continue to apply those lessons to safeguard the future of elephants,” he said.